The first big golf event of the year begins on Thursday at TPC Sawgrass. Known for many years as the “5th major” (before it really felt that way) The Players Championship has grown in prestige. Even the quirky 17th hole, which in some ways may have held this tournament back, is now accepted as something approaching the stature of the 12th hole at Amen corner (at least for the newcomers to this sport).

The long term stats suggest that distance off the tee is not a key factor this week. The winner of this event is usually one of the leaders in greens hit in regulation and has shown to be able to handle the bermuda grass greens. Unusually, a review of the final leaderboards over the past five years (the 2020 version cancelled due to Covid-19) does not reveal any particular player trends. In fact, the only players who seem to pop up semi-consistently, are Justin Thomas, Jason Day and Brian Harman – he of the 110/1 odds.

There is a long list of top players who are trending at the moment and a longer list of players who appear on the verge of something greater in their career. Here is how I see things going down this weekend.

Who should win? – Collin Morikawa (14/1)

The best iron player on Tour has shown an ability to contend and win the biggest events. Morikawa plays and carries himself like someone who fully expects to win regardless of the field or the status of the event.

Who could win? – Justin Thomas (14/1), Viktor Hovland (20/1), Sam Burns (45/1)

This list could also easily include players such as Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele. In short, Scheffler has to be tuckered out having won twice in the past three weeks, Cantlay has not shown yet that he can contend in the bigger events (especially on greens that are not bentgrass), Rory is still a player who can win anytime but lately seems to fade on Sunday and Xander will definitely get there someday soon and I wouldn’t be surprised to start seeing him win a clutch of majors in the next few years.

But for now, the three aforementioned players are ones to consider this week. Thomas is an exceptionally strong and strong-willed player who can win anywhere and anytime his putter is at least medium-hot. Hovland is a stud who doesn’t look like he should be the best player in the world, but is getting awfully close. Sam Burns is a lot like Cantlay in that he has not shown up on the bigger stages, and with his long odds could also be considered a long shot, but there is one key difference – he loves Bermuda grass greens.

Longer shots to consider – Will Zalatoris (45/1), Matthew Fitzpatrick (40/1), Brian Harman (110/1)

Zalatoris could easily be someone in the “could win” category, but as good as he has been tee-to-green, he has struggled with the flatstick from 5 feet and in. He is another in that long list of young studs who will be contending in majors for the next 15 to 20 years. Fitzpatrick is a top-10 machine that does not get a lot of press. A consistent winner in parts of the world other than the US, he is usually just off the main page of the leaderboard but is someone who will eventually break through. Harman is a guy that occasionally shows up in big events. He may not win, but could be a smart top-10 or 20 selection.

Who will win? – Jon Rahm (11/1)

Rahm has been a little quiet lately but he loves to compete on tougher tracks. His all round game featuring power, precision and finesse should put him in a good position to get back to the winners circle this weekend.

Arnie would be a little troubled that his beloved tournament is now attracting fewer of the top 20 players in the world as many of the top dogs are taking the week off to rest up for THE PLAYERS Championship. But with Jon Rahm, Viktor Hovland, and Rory McIlroy in the field, it still has some major star power. Based on historical results, the winning score should be somewhere in the 12 under range.

Who should win? – Rory McIlroy (12/1)

Rory won back in 2018 and has been on the first page of the leaderboard consistently during the last five editions of this tournament. He had a T10 at the Genesis against a strong field.

Who could win? – Jon Rahm (8.50/1), Viktor Hovland (16/1), Scottie Scheffler (16/1)

It’s clear that I agree with the oddsmakers as, along with McIlroy, this group has the shortest odds to win at Bay Hill. After a raft of first-time and somewhat surprising winners recently, I think we are going to see one of the top-10 players walk away with the winners cheque this week.

Longer shots to consider – Maverick McNealey (60/1), Jason Day (66/1)

McNealey is going to break through eventually and his T7 at the Genesis may have given him a big dose of confidence. Jason Day is all rested up and coming off a couple of his best results in the past two years.

Who will win? – Rory McIlroy

A lot of people in and around pro golf still believe that when he is on his game, Rory is the best player in the game. I don’t necessarily share that view but I do believe in “horses for courses” and this is a place where Rory always plays well.

Many of the Tour’s top players are taking a week off after most took part in the two prior stops at Riviera and at the frat party known as the Phoenix Open. For many, it’s to take a breather before Arnie’s Bay Hill event and the Player’s Championship. With only three of the world’s top-20 appearing this week, there’s a great opportunity for one of the Tour’s supporting cast to grab the spotlight.

Who should win? – Sunjae Im (12/1)

Im is the betting favorite, a past winner of this event, and usually a top-20 machine. If his putter cooperates, he should be in contention on Sunday.

Who could win? – Tommy Fleetwood (30/1), Joaquin Niemann (20/1), Louis Oosthuizen (22/1), Daniel Berger (16/1)

Fleetwood has just got to win eventually – doesn’t he? Last week Niemann won after a T8 at the Saudi event. Fleetwood was also T8 at the Saudi event and took last week off – so… Oosthuizen is not as hot as he was during a late stretch of last season but he’s strung together some top-15’s lately. Berger missed the cut last week but he’s been in the hunt in four of his last five tournaments. He’s also just a really good player who is also due for a win – particularly with a weaker field to contend with. Niemann won last week against a very strong field. He is one of the best young players out there and appears to know how to close out a tournament.

Longer shots to consider? – Brian Harman (40/1), Matthew Wolff (40/1)

Harman is simply a gut call. He seems to come out nowhere occasionally – this week could be that occasion. Wolff came out on Tour and made a big splash as part of that great young triumvirate that includes Morikowa and Hovland. Then he hit a snag and took some time off. He came back and had a few good tournaments including one that he couldn’t close out. This week, against this field, may be his chance to shine.

Who will win? – Keith Mitchell (33/1),

Mitchell won his first and only tournament here in 2019. He’s a solid player who cashes a lot of cheques but is usually just off the first page of most leaderboards. He had a T10 at Riviera last week following a couple of T12’s and a T7. We will overlook the MC at the Farmers.

A very strong field tees up this week at Riviera. This is a course that the pros respect and love to play. Tiger Woods is the host which may also play into why so many of the top 20 players in the world are on hand.

Who should win? – Patrick Cantlay (12/1)

He’s been the hottest player in the world for about the last six months and lost in a playoff last week when his trust putter failed him – just a bit.

Who could win? – Jon Rahm (9/1), Hideki Matsuyama (25/1), Cameron Smith (22/1)

When Rahm has his “B” game, he still seems to finish in the top 10. He’s been a little rusty lately but could win here if the putter complies. Smith is ready for a breakthrough season. He finished in the top-5 last year and has the game to win on tough tracks. Matsuyama is starting to look like the player we all thought he could be about five years ago.

Longer shots to consider – Max Homa (55/1), Bubba Watson (45/1)

Homa is the defending champion and despite a few MC’s has seen his game come around lately. Watson has been in the wilderness recently but he has won this event twice and played well last week in Phoenix.

Who will win? – Hideki Matsuyama

Coming off an eighth place finish last week and two wins in his last five events, Matsuyama has had a some good results here in the past.

It’s a strong field this week at TPC Scottsdale with 15 of the top-20 ranked players teeing it up on Thursday. The shortest odds (according to bet365.com) are Jon Rahm at 7.5/1, Justin Thomas at 12/1, Patrick Cantlay 16/1, Hideki Matsuyama, and Viktor Hovland both at 18/1.

Who should win? – Justin Thomas

JT has had two third-place finishes over the past three years and has been playing well early this season. He is due for a win and it could come this week.

Who could win? – Hideki Matsuyama, Viktor Hovland, Jordan Spieth (22/1)

Matsuyama won this event in 2017 and his record over his last five events has been: T59, 1, T13, 1, T30, so it’s possible this trend could continue. Hovland has three wins in his past five events. Some have been in smaller field and Euro Tour events and he has only played here once (MC), but he is still someone who is almost guaranteed to be in the hunt on Sunday. Jordan Spieth is still working on his full swing but nearly won last week at Pebble Beach with his always strong short game. He is someone who usually goes on a run when he is playing well.

Longer shots to consider? – Webb Simpson (45/1), Andrew Putnam (125/1)

Simpson has had a win and a runner-up finish in this tournament over the past five years. He has had some injury issues but always seems to play well here. Putnam was right there last week and has had some good results on this course – at these odds, it’s worth throwing down a few bucks.

Who will win? – Jordan Spieth

This was a coin-toss between Spieth and Hovland but when Spieth is on, he’s on and he should continue his good play this week. Hovland has only played this event once and missed the cut but aside from mediocre chipping, he’s so damn good that I predict a shoot-out between him and Spieth this weekend.

This once marquis event is now more like a B+ tournament in terms of the quality of the field. The course is magnificent but the weather can turn at this time of year. The Pro-Am aspect is no longer what it was as it attracts more CEO types than celebrities – but they are merely a sideshow that isn’t that compelling to watch.

Who should win? – Patrick Cantlay (7/1)

Cantlay has had a handful of good results at this event including a T4 last year. But the primary reason he is the player to watch is how he has performed in his last five tournaments – T11, 1, 1, 4, 9 – say no more.

Who could win? – Daniel Berger 12/1, Jason Day 22/1, Maverick McNealy 25/1, Seamus Power 28/1

Berger won last year and had a T5 in 2020. He is one of the better semi-young players on Tour and has the second shortest odds to win this week. Jason Day has been in the wilderness for the past few years but was in serious contention at Torrey Pines last week and has had four consecutive top-10’s at this tournament. McNealy finished just behind Berger last year and his game is improving. He should win his first Tour event soon. Power keeps putting up good results and his all-around game suits this course.

Longer shots to consider – Kevin Streelman 55/1, Taylor Pendrith 125/1, Cameron Tringale 28/1

Streelman is a player that occasionally contends but often fades down the stretch but he has had a great track record at this event. Pendrith is a Canadian rookie who hits it a long way and was very consistent over the past couple of years on the Korn Ferry. He has had a problem with his final rounds lately, but this is not uncommon among first-timers. I believe he will be the next “great” Canadian player on the Tour. Tringale has strung together a surprising number of top finishes of late. He can’t seem to finish strong and this has kept him from winning that long-awaited first victory. He may need to “back in” to one someday to get untracked. I would look at his top-5 odds rather than bet on him to win outright.

Who will win? – Jason Day 22/1

Day seems to love this golf course and last week’s result may be just the confidence-builder that he needs to get back to the winner’s circle.

I was caught off guard with the Wednesday start this week. I have no excuse as I am currently residing in the San Diego area. Because of this, my analysis will be more succinct.

The field is a strong one with six of the top ten and twelve of the top twenty in the OWGR competing at Torrey Pines. Based on current ranking, odds to win and past results in this event, the studs would appear to be Jon Rahm, Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schauffele and Tony Finau. I am not discounting the presence of Justin Thomas, Bryson DeChambeau and Jordan Spieth but those players have either not competed on this track lately or well.

Who should win? – Jon Rahm (6/1)

This seems to be my go-to lately but it’s hard not to identify Rahm as the player to beat on a tougher golf course where he has had a lot of top finishes.

Longer shots to consider – Francesco Molinari (100/1), Will Zalatoris (40/1)

I have been waiting Molinari to find his game again and he looked like he was ready last week. Zalatoris may also break through this week on a course where -10 will be a good score.

Who will win? – Tony Finau (25/1)

This course suits Finau’s game and he has contended here in the past. This could be the week of his third career win – and we all know he should have many more.

One thing is certain this week in the desert; it will be another low-scoring affair. The thing that is not so easy to forecast in this type of tournament is who are the true contenders. Jon Rahm, who is in the field this week and the heavy favorite at 6/1, won this event in 2018 but the other winners in the past five years have been a series of B-listers including Andrew Landry, Adam Long, Hudson Swafford, and Si Woo Kim. Rahm and Patrick Cantlay are clearly the class of the field but expect to see some other less familiar names on the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon.

Who should win? – Jon Rahm (6/1)

He is currently the best player in the world and is capable of winning on any type of golf course.

Who could win? – Patrick Cantlay (9/1), Tony Finau (25/1), Abraham Ancer (28/1), Scottie Scheffler (20/1), Matthew Wolff (40/1)

All of these players have had good results in this tournament and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see any of them take the top prize. Scheffler is still looking for his first win and it will come soon. Wolff seems to be over his crisis of confidence and he has shown the ability to go low at these types of venues.

Longshots to consider – Adam Hadwin (90/1), Andrew Landry (140/1), Seamus Power (40/1)

Hadwin has been quiet of late but had three consecutive top-3’s in this tournament a few years back. Landry won in 2020 and finished runner-up to Rahm in ‘18. Lately, he has alternated a series of MC’s and top-10’s , so watch out for him this week. Power is not really a long shot as he has been steadily climbing the WGR in the past year. At 40/1, would be a good bet to win outright.

Who will win? – Rahm

Unlike some other top players, Rahm has the ability to get up for all tournaments and if he has anything at all going this week, will be the player to beat.

I’m posting this just a few moments before the first player tees off this morning. The field is certainly not as strong as last week’s Tournament of Champions but there are a few holdovers. Most notably, the TOC winner Cameron Smith. Smith played arguably his best golf ever last season as he seemed to be in contention weekly. Taking a quick look at the final results of the last five Sony Opens reveals an idea of who may be in the hunt this week.

Who should win? – Webb Simpson (16/1)

Simpson has not yet won the Sony Open but – with one exception – has been in the top 5 in this tournament whenever he has played. He is due to close one out.

Who could win? – Corey Conners (25/1), Marc Leishman (20/1)

Conners has been a top 20 machine over the past two seasons and has had some good results here including a T3. With these odds, he is worth putting down a few dollars to win outright. Leishman always seems to make my “could win” category. That’s because he tends to rack up a lot of top 5’s during the year. He has had difficulty closing out tournaments of late but has been good on this track.

Who will win? – Cameron Smith (10/1)

It’s hard to win back to back for anyone on Tour, but for a player of Smith’s caliber, I will make an exception. He comes into this tournament having beaten a very strong field, he’s won on this course before and he’s on form. He is the odds-on favorite for a reason.

It will be a particularly strong field that will begin play tomorrow in Kapalua as most of the Tour’s best players won at least one tournament in the most current wraparound season. Historically, this tournament has had many eligible players decide to take a pass. This year there will be only two no-shows – Rory McIlroy has opted out and Jim Herman recently tested positive for Covid-19.

The plantation course generally yields low scores as fairways are generous, the elevation is high and many of the longer holes are downhill. The course will favor long hitters who can wedge it close.

Who should win? – Justin Thomas (8/1)

JT has had two wins and a runner-up finish in the past four events. This course suits him perfectly, so if he is putting reasonably well this week, he will be in the final few groups come Sunday.

Who could win? – Xander Schauffele (12/1), Collin Morikawa (11/1), Viktor Hovland (14/1), Sam Burns (18/1), Cameron Smith (22/1)

Jon Rahm (9/1) is a notable omission from this list, but the best player on Tour last season has had a couple of MCs in Europe lately so it is difficult to consider him a favorite until he straightens out whatever is ailing his game. Schauffele is also a past winner with a runner-up finish last year so he is almost a lock to be in the hunt this week. Morikawa has such a sound overall game that he will be a favorite in every event in which he tees it up. The same can be said for Hovland. He has won his last two starts so the odds are against him, but hard to best against this engaging Dane. Sam Burns appears to have no weaknesses in his game. He’s long off the tee, hits it close, and was one of the top putters on Tour last year. On top of that, as I have said before, he, like JT, expects to win and is not intimidated by the top dogs – he is now one of them. Cameron Smith has the stats to suggest a strong showing in Maui. He could and should be a consistent presence and winner on leaderboards this season.

Longer-shots to consider – Patrick Reed (28/1), Marc Leishman (35/1), Jason Kokrak (40/1)

Reed is usually not considered in the longshot category but with 28/1 odds, he might very well be the best bet this week. He lost in a playoff last year, he finished just behind Spieth in 2016, and has had one other top-10 in this event. Leishman has also performed well on this course in both 2018 and 2019. Jason Kokrak has started to putt really well and that should see him racking up the wins in the next few years.

Who will win?– Justin Thomas

It’s hard to bet against JT on a course that he plays so well and has so many fond memories.